Spatial explicit land use change scenarios within carbiocial were developed and applied in an interdisciplinary approach, aiming at knowledge integration and consistency of results for stakeholder discussions.
The land use change scenarios for the BR-163 corridor were quantified and calibrated according to the developed Storylines (SP14) and in consistency with the regional land use model LandSHIFT covering Mato Grosso and Pará state
Four storylines of future socioeconomic development within the region until 2030 were developed. They cover a “Trend development”, a “legal-“ and an “illegal-intensification” storyline and a “Sustainable Development” scenario (see SP11 for Storyline description). The quantification, i.e. the translation of those qualitative Storylines into numbers, was mostly done by SP11. SP11 also provided the necessary input for the 90*90m² sub-regional land use model which was coupled with the LandSHIFT land use model providing estimates of land use change at 900x900m² spatial resolution, 5 years’ temporal resolution.
The coupled approach provides of land use changes between scales, while the initial land use representation was based on the regional TerraClass 2010 (INPE) land cover dataset, being superior for sub-regional assessments in comparison to a global land use cover product.
The coupling refers to extracting the estimates of land use change from LandSHIFT (regional scale) for the BR-163-corridor (sub-regional model) and use those changes for the sub-regional land use change allocation (a detailed description can be found in Gollnow et al.). Following land use changes were allocated in space, based on location specific suitability of each land use class following the results of a statistical evaluation (see Tab. 3) and additional policy and land conversion related factors (see Tab. 2 and 4).
The spatial explicit scenario results highlight the region as to be especially exposed to pasture expansion dynamics. Strategies of future policies to curb deforestation should strengthen the current efforts of the beef moratorium, implementation of a property cadaster, and intensification of cattle and crop production next the strategies successfully implemented within the PPCDAm.
Florian Gollnow: email@example.com
Tobia Lakes: firstname.lastname@example.org
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